Min Jinwei on How China Responds to the US Tariff War

Former Xinhua reporter-turned-celebrated public opinion leader said China could pivot to yuan trade, dump US debt, and take more proactive military measures.

Ming Jinwei 明金维, former Xinhua reporter-turned-celebrated public opinion leader, has just shared a post on his domestic influential WeChat blog, Uncle Ming’s Remarks (明叔杂谈).

In his post, Ming compares the tariff war to a modern-day Battle of Triangle Hill (Shangganling Campaign) - the Korean War's grueling stalemate where Chinese People's Volunteer Army eventually repelled UN troops at heavy cost. He then offer some suggestions on China's strategic countermeasures.

Below is the full translated post.

特朗普的“赌徒心态”暴露无遗，中国如何赢得这场新时代的“上甘岭战役”？

Trump's "Gambler's Mentality" Exposed: How Can China Win the "Battle of Triangle Hill" in This New Era?

1)President Trump has launched an illegitimate trade war against the world, causing turmoil in global financial markets. In just two days, the U.S. stock market lost over $6 trillion in value. Some people have said that Trump "lifted a stone and smashed it on the world's foot." This analogy is very fitting, and I completely agree.

2)In response to Trump's extortion and bullying, China firmly retaliated, winning widespread praise from netizens worldwide. After Trump announced a 34% tariff on Chinese goods imported to the U.S., China imposed reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. goods imported to China. China's countermeasures were one of the key reasons behind the dramatic fall in the U.S. stock market.

3)In this situation, Trump's "gambling mindset" has been fully exposed. He angrily posted on social media, threatening that if China doesn't cancel its retaliatory measures, the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Honestly, Trump doesn't know the Chinese people at all. Our mindset has always been: "When others respect us, we respect them even more," "For our friends, we have fine wine. For jackals or wolves, we welcome with shotguns." Trump's threats and extortion aimed at China in front of the whole world simply won't work. This is not just about China's national interests, but also about the dignity of the Chinese people. To Trump's crazy "gambling mindset," all I want to say is: "The Chinese people won’t buy it."

4)As for how to counter Trump's bullying and extortion, "Chairman Rabbit" proposed a series of technical suggestions (Countermeasures to the U.S. Trade War: China's Remaining Big Moves - Chinese ver/English ver), while "Niu Tan Qin (牛弹琴)" shared six specific countermeasures through sources, including sharply raising tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, suspending U.S. poultry imports, and halting China-U.S. cooperation on the fentanyl issue (Regarding countermeasures against US tariffs, we have received some latest news - Chinese ver/English ver). At this moment, all of China's experts should get involved, strategize, and contribute their wisdom and strength to help China win the "Battle of Triangle Hill" in the new era.

5)From my personal perspective, there are also some broader, more strategic actions we could consider.

6)First, the 1.4 billion Chinese people must stay clear-headed and united. The escalation of the trade war by the U.S. is not something China wanted to see. On the contrary, China has repeatedly said that protectionism leads nowhere and that there are no winners in a trade war. Trump, with his stubborn, extreme mindset, insists on challenging China with a "gambling mentality," so China has no choice but to fight till the end. At this point, being inwardly critical or seeking sympathy in the hope of softening Trump's stance will not work. Since Trump insists on pushing the "Battle of Triangle Hill" onto China, our response should be to rally closely around the CPC and government, each of us playing our part and working together to win this crucial battle in the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

7)Secondly, this is a great opportunity to showcase China's moral influence and appeal on the global stage. Some countries, due to their weak strength, have no means to resist Trump's extortion. Others still hold illusions about Trump, hesitating and indecisive. By being the first to retaliate against the U.S., China has shown the world its determination to stand up against hegemony and not be intimidated by power. When the U.S. started a trade war with the world, China could announce further tariff reductions and market openings for its trade partners outside the U.S., especially for countries in the Global South. China welcomes them to come to Beijing to negotiate new free trade agreements, rather than seeing them beg in Washington only to be repeatedly humiliated by Trump. For necessary consumer and investment goods in China's domestic market, we can take the lead in lowering tariffs. For imports that may impact domestic industries, we can gradually increase market access through mutually beneficial free trade agreements. By sending this major signal now, we make it clear to the world that the U.S. is not the only market. China can also be a crucial partner, offering significant development opportunities. We want the world to see that as the U.S. under Trump becomes increasingly unreliable and untrustworthy, the future of global development lies with China, not with the U.S.

8)Third, China can seize this opportunity to announce that, due to the unreliability of the U.S. under Trump's leadership and the significant risks posed by the U.S. dollar, it will prioritize using the yuan/RMB for settlement in international trade. For countries meeting certain conditions, China may also accept the use of local currencies in bilateral trade. This move would send a strong signal that the U.S. dollar is unreliable, helping to undermine the foundation of U.S. dollar hegemony. Moreover, it would reduce China's reliance on the dollar in international trade and protect against the risk of Trump using dollar hegemony to extort China. Beyond promoting yuan settlement in international trade, China should also push for the establishment of a non-dollar payment system and accelerate its implementation. This is not only necessary to break free from dollar dependence, but also a clear message to the U.S.—while Trump is focused solely on tariffs, China is capable of challenging one of the U.S.'s most critical concerns—dollar hegemony.

9)Fourth, with U.S. national debt out of control, a serious debt crisis may emerge. China could announce that it will gradually reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and decrease the proportion of dollar assets in its foreign exchange reserves. This would send a damaging signal to the U.S.'s sovereign credit, impacting global investors' confidence in U.S. bonds and dollar assets. Reducing U.S. bond holdings and the share of dollar assets in reserves is a long-term process and needs to be done cautiously to ensure the preservation of China's foreign exchange assets. Furthermore, China could also signal its openness to welcoming high-quality global companies to accelerate their listings in Hong Kong and issue bonds in yuan, reducing global reliance on the dollar and U.S. financial markets for financing. This too would help undermine U.S. financial hegemony. Overall, financial warfare is a critical part of the China-U.S. rivalry. It's not just about managing financial market stability within China amidst complex geopolitical and economic challenges, but also about China's effort to replace the dollar with the yuan as the main currency for international trade settlements, global investment, and reserves, and as the primary currency for global commodity pricing. China's financial sector should not only learn how the West makes money but also focus on serving the real economy. More importantly, China's financial sector needs to play a more active, critical, and important role in the China-U.S. rivalry, offering strategies, solutions, and wisdom to help the yuan replace the dollar as the main international currency. This is a significant contribution the financial sector can make to China's national rejuvenation.

10)Fifth, to counter the extreme anti-China forces in the U.S. and defend China's sovereignty, security, and development interests, China can take more proactive measures in the military field to deplete and distract U.S. strategic resources:

• At a time when the U.S. and Israel are poised to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, China could condemn Trump's government for violating the Iran nuclear deal and, along with Russia, support Iran's efforts to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

• Given the U.S.'s history of aggression, China should increase military cooperation with friendly countries in the South China Sea, Indian Ocean, East and West African coasts, and the South Pacific. China should also actively consider building new military bases to prevent the U.S. from blocking or disrupting China's international trade routes and energy imports. One of the U.S.'s biggest fears is China building military bases overseas, which threatens America's global military dominance. Establishing military bases abroad is a long-term process for China, but just signaling such intentions would be enough to shake the U.S. military and force the U.S. to divert its attention to these issues.

• China could publicly announce that it will further enhance its nuclear deterrence capabilities. China can learn from Russia and use its strong nuclear deterrence to make the extreme anti-China forces in the U.S. abandon any ambitions for direct military confrontation with China.

• China could also announce that it will actively promote the process of national reunification, putting the U.S. in a complex situation where it has to deal with "three fronts"—the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region—thereby distracting and depleting U.S. strategic resources.

P.S. From both motives and actions, the U.S. under Trump has effectively become an "enemy" of China and the Chinese people. This is not something that can be changed by personal will. "It rains when Heaven deems fit, mother remarries when she wants to. 天要下雨，娘要嫁人" All China can do is respond actively.

Trump has always believed that China's exports to the U.S. are the most vulnerable point for China and the best leverage the U.S. has. But at this point, whether it's 54% tariffs or 104% tariffs, it doesn't make much difference. China-U.S. trade will face serious damage. We must be prepared for a significant decline in China-U.S. trade. For the export industries and companies severely affected domestically, supportive policies should be implemented. However, this may not be entirely bad. As the U.S. continues to "weaponize" China's dependence on exports to the U.S. and uses it for extortion and harm, China can only reduce this dependency. In the future, whether China achieves complete reunification or the U.S. and China face severe conflict for other reasons, China-U.S. trade will eventually face the same fate. Now, before the situation worsens, it’s actually a good thing to gradually solve this issue that has troubled China for years. After all, "Better a finger off than always aching."

Finally, I hope everyone can contribute their best efforts and support China in winning this crucial "Battle of Triangle Hill" in the current extremely complex and difficult situation of the China-U.S. rivalry. The outcome of this battle directly affects each of us. We are all involved, not bystanders.