Former Japanese PM calls for less reliance on U.S., stronger East Asian ties
Addressing 13th World Peace Forum, Yukio Hatoyama calls for de-risking from the U.S., deeper regional cooperation, and recognition of the Taiwan question as China's internal affair
Update: I was kindly reminded that the following English text is translated from the Chinese transcript provided by the event organizer, which itself was based on live interpretation from Japanese. This means the English version reflects a Japanese → Chinese → English translation process, and there may inevitably be some discrepancies from Mr. Yukio Hatoyama's original remarks in Japanese. I apologize for any such inconsistencies.
Today's edition features the full English translation of former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's address at the just-concluded 13th World Peace Forum, based on the transcript provided by the organizer. The Chinese transcript is also available on Guancha.cn.
The forum, hosted by Tsinghua University and the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs, is the first high-level international security forum initiated by Chinese institutions. This year, it convened global voices from July 2 to 4 under the theme of "Advancing Global Peace and Prosperity: Shared Responsibility, Benefit and Achievement."
With characteristic bluntness, Hatoyama calls for Japan to "de-risk" by reducing its dependence on the United States, especially on national security, openly admitting Japan's limited capabilities in this domain. He points to Tokyo's alignment with Washington on the Taiwan question as an example, arguing that genuine diplomatic autonomy would require Japan to make clear it does not support Taiwan independence, thus lowering the risk of regional conflict.
He further calls for deeper China-Japan-South Korea cooperation—including a trilateral free trade zone to counter U.S. tariffs—and urges Japan to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative.
Please note the English translation has not been reviewed by Mr. Hatoyama.
Distinguished President of Tsinghua University, Mr. Li Luming, former President of the European Council, Mr. Herman Van Rompuy, ladies and gentlemen, my name is Yukio Hatoyama.
It is my great honor to speak at the 13th World Peace Forum. I sincerely thank Tsinghua University and the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs for their diligent efforts in organizing this forum.
Speaking about the current international situation, there is always one recurrent theme: President Trump. He has been in office for half a year now. Are you tired of hearing about him yet? Personally, I must admit I am already tired. Unfortunately, today, I cannot avoid discussing Trump's America.
Common sense tells us that President Trump still has three and a half years left in office, which is indeed troubling. Our only response can be to prepare carefully for the challenges of these next years. However, the real concern arises if the 48th President elected in November 2028 is someone who subscribes to Trumpism, whether a Republican or even a Democrat. The essence of Trump's America may persist after Trump due to the powerful appeal of the MAGA slogan—Make America Great Again.
In other words, the United States has lost its past glory. America's share of the global economy was about 40% in 1960, but now it is only a quarter, or even just 15% if measured by purchasing power parity. The domestic income gap and societal divisions are also extremely serious. Consequently, the U.S. can no longer play the benevolent leader role it assumed in global affairs for nearly 80 years after World War II. It is understandable that many Americans are pinning their hopes on a peculiar leader who declares that America has been exploited by the world and its allies.
Four years ago, shortly after his inauguration, President Biden declared, "America is back," emphasizing the importance of international cooperation. Indeed, the Biden administration returned to normalcy compared to the previous Trump's tenure. However, it still fell short of the standards of the Obama administration or even earlier periods. Although Biden doesn't use Trump's exact language, his policies still carry strong elements of "America First" and MAGA.
Future presidential candidates, regardless of their party, are likely to follow this approach, as it seems necessary to secure election. This reflects the current political reality in America. America has changed irreversibly, and therefore, we must also change. During Trump 1.0, the most obvious change was the confrontation between the U.S. and China, for which China has already spent years preparing. In Trump 2.0, this shift will no longer be limited to China-U.S. relations but will affect the entire foundation of global order. Even American allies are beginning to realize they must change or significantly adjust their strategies. At this crossroads, what should Japan do? Allow me to share my views.
Facing Trump's America, theoretically, Japan has four possible paths: First, unconditional alignment with the U.S.; second, attempt to reason with and advise the U.S.; third, enhance independence from the U.S.; fourth, break away from the U.S.
The first option, continuing unconditional alignment, is defeatist. Since World War II, Japan has been one of America's most loyal allies. Tokyo might continue down this path out of inertia. However, the justification for this "easiest" path was always that the U.S. was invincible and rarely made serious errors. Today, that premise has collapsed, making continuous alignment increasingly unjustifiable.
The second option seems idealistic but is naïve and counterproductive. If you try reasoning with Trump, he won't listen and might instead retaliate and bully you.
The fourth option, a full decoupling from America, is short-sighted. Even if we dislike Trump's America, completely ignoring it carries significant costs. I studied in the U.S. in my youth and have experienced its strengths firsthand, which have not entirely vanished. No country can achieve prosperity through complete decoupling from the U.S.
The third option, increasing autonomy, is the most natural and, I believe, the correct choice for Japan, though it won't be easy. Given Japan's national strength, unilateral attempts to reduce reliance on the U.S. would face significant difficulties. Unfortunately, East Asia lacks a regional community similar to Europe. For Japan to strengthen autonomy, cooperation with East Asian neighbors and medium-sized powers in ASEAN, Europe, and the Global South is essential. South Korea faces the same situation, as does China, despite its comparable strength to the U.S. Therefore, enhancing trilateral cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea is especially critical.
Last month, Lee Jae-myung was inaugurated as South Korea's new president. As the current rotating chair, Japan should demonstrate leadership by promptly facilitating a trilateral summit. Equally important, the three nations should cooperate to ensure the success of this year's APEC meeting in South Korea. Creating an East Asian community has been my long-standing advocacy. Incremental cooperation is the key, and in this sense, enhancing Japan's autonomy vis-à-vis the U.S. aligns with the path towards an East Asian community.
As we know, Trump is waging tariff wars globally. In Japan, there's a saying: "Nobody can handle a crying child." It's futile to use logic or economic theory to persuade Trump. Our only choice is to buy time and respond flexibly. We must avoid creating the impression for Trump that escalating conflicts will make the other countries yield and compensate him. Trump's tariffs, if fully implemented, will severely impact Japan's economy but not enough to collapse it. We must prepare for some pain. Trump's policies might benefit a few U.S. companies and workers but harm far more American businesses and consumers. Facing Trump is like a narrow path where courage prevails. I hope Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba continues negotiations resolutely.
My earlier points address short-term tactical responses. Meanwhile, we need deeper strategic measures. Some in Japan believe Trump's tariffs will inevitably slow exports, especially automobiles, and lead to an economic slowdown. As a result, it is necessary to introduce new economic stimulus and subsidies. But using taxpayers' money to offset the impact of Trump’s policies is absurd. If Trump—or a similar administration—remains a fixture in U.S. politics, we could find ourselves facing the same situation again and again.
The more Japan relies on exports to the U.S., the more vulnerable its economy becomes to America's resilience. Reducing export dependence on the U.S. by diversifying markets is our best self-protection, a strategy I call "de-risking," not decoupling.
Ironically, this mirrors Japan's recent strategies regarding China. Of course, some companies may choose to increase investments to safeguard their exports - that's a business decision. But the Japanese government should not encourage this as policy. Trump's America does not reciprocate goodwill with goodwill; just look at how it treated even Australia, a nation with a trade deficit against the U.S., which still faced tariffs without exemption.
The best way to reduce reliance on exports to the U.S. is not to cut shipments to America, but to expand exports to other markets. Japan isn't alone; China, South Korea, and Europe also seek to diversify beyond the American market. What we're seeing is the dawn of an intense global competition to capture non-American demand.
The Japanese economy needs to undergo a transformation, starting with a significant increase in investment in education to boost productivity. Second, Japan must move away from old ways of thinking and actively promote international cooperation between companies. There's a popular slogan in Japan about responding as a nation, but in reality, many Japanese companies remain hesitant to partner with Chinese firms overseas due to concerns about U.S. sanctions — there are some notable examples of this. However, if Japanese businesses avoid collaboration with China's advanced high-tech sector, they will miss out on future success. There are countless ways to move forward, such as setting up joint ventures between Japanese and Chinese companies, or establishing partnerships in third countries like those in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, Japan should consider joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and taking part in Belt and Road projects. Among developed countries, only Japan and the United States have yet to join the AIIB, and it's time for that to change.
In response to Trump's tariffs, Japan must deepen free trade agreements with like-minded countries. If the United States adopts protectionism, we must pursue alternative strategies. In East Asia, there are especially promising approaches, and the most notable is to establish a free trade zone among Japan, China, and South Korea—one that goes beyond the current Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
At the same time, we should work to expand RCEP, particularly in the area of digital trade, and we should immediately apply to join the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement. Expanding the membership of the CPTPP is also an important priority. It's surprising that neither China nor South Korea is a member of the CPTPP at this point. Personally, I believe it would be beneficial to allow China and Taiwan to join simultaneously, with Taiwan joining following the World Trade Organization (WTO) model. By doing so, like-minded countries can work together to drive reforms in key international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank.
According to reports, the Trump administration is pressuring Japan to increase its defense spending to 3.5% or even 5% of its GDP. If Japan were to agree, it would need to raise its current consumption tax by another 3.5 to 7 percentage points on top of the existing 10% — a move that would undoubtedly impact the Japanese economy. In my view, Japan should strive for greater independence from the United States, particularly when it comes to national security. But to be honest, it's hard to say whether the Japanese government will actually take such steps. Even if it does, achieving real independence would be a long and difficult process.
There are two reasons I think this way. First, Japan essentially lacks the capability to become more independent from the U.S., especially in the realm of defense. We've seen European countries make significant concessions to the Trump administration, despite their desire for greater autonomy, because they recognize the limitations of their own military power and also want to keep Trump's America within NATO. Europe, of course, has the EU's collective defense system, but is a similar collective security arrangement even realistic for East Asia? Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has expressed interest in creating an East Asian version of NATO, but frankly, that idea is little more than his personal pipe dream.
If the Japanese government were to make a formal proposal for such an arrangement, no country—including the United States—would seriously consider it. Whenever Japan tries to chart its own course on national security, the deeply-rooted perception within Japanese society of China as a major threat inevitably comes into play. The Japanese Prime Minister often make the flawed comparison that "today's Ukraine is tomorrow's East Asia," a statement clearly directed at China. I believe this analogy is highly problematic: when a national leader repeatedly promotes such a mistaken view, it misleads both the domestic audience and the international community. In fact, Japan's perception of China as a threat has spread so widely that bilateral exchanges between the two countries have dropped sharply.
Looking at the current government, there is a clear reluctance to foster discussion—either within government circles or among the public—about Japan's security options. The prevailing sentiment seems to be that, without U.S. military protection, Japan would not be able to survive, and therefore the only choice is to deepen integration with U.S. forces. Under the influence of this mindset, it is very difficult for Japan to achieve greater independence from the United States — something the whole world is watching closely.
However, I would argue that a more independent foreign policy is still possible for Japan. Such independence would allow Japan to better safeguard its own security and contribute to stability in East Asia. Achieving this involves not only strengthening its defense capabilities and advancing self-defense efforts, but also taking steps to reduce the risk of conflict in the region. For example, Japan could make it clear that it does not support Taiwan independence and will oppose any moves in that direction. In fact, one area where Japan's reliance on the United States is most apparent is its position on the Taiwan issue. Yet, the presence of U.S. military bases in Japan means that Washington cannot simply disregard Tokyo's perspective. Ultimately, the Taiwan question is a matter of China's internal affairs. By helping to prevent a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, Japan can make a significant contribution to regional peace — one that aligns with its own national security interests.
Now, I’d like to touch on Japan's national security strategy, which was approved in December 2022. The document states that Japan, as an advanced democracy, is committed to upholding universal values — including freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights, and the rule of law — and to shaping an international order that promotes coexistence and prosperity.
Some may say that Trump's America has turned its back on universal values, but few people would argue that the G7's support for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran aligns with universal values either. For my part, I do believe in democracy, yet biased approaches toward democracy and values threaten world peace.
I once wrote an article warning that placing too much emphasis on democratic values can be dangerous. If we cling too tightly to the principles of democracy and human rights, it becomes all too easy to label those who don't share our views as "bad people." We should recognize and respect different values and the intentions of others — otherwise, we risk falling into a vicious cycle of mutual hostility.
History offers us lessons: in 19th-century Europe, and again during the Cold War after World War II, we saw that strategic stability was only possible when ideological differences and value judgments were set aside, at least in matters of war and peace. This is why I believe it is important for Trump's values not to dominate the realm of foreign policy. Every country has its own set of values; what matters most is to respect and understand them, and to offer support where needed. That, to me, is the mark of a truly compassionate society.
In today's world, the use of force to impose "justice" or particular values is threatening global peace. I sincerely hope we can still act in time to build a more caring, harmonious world for all. Thank you.