Between the Xi-Trump call and the London talks

Cautious optimism is warranted, judging by the readout and recent bilateral dynamics.

Xi and Trump held the much-anticipated call on June 5th, the first since Trump's return to the White House in January. Following the call, Trump quickly announced that the two countries' trade officials will meet in London on June 9th.

And what should we expect next?

Today's edition brings you the perspectives from Beijing—both from state media and leading academic voices:

• Yuyuan Tantian 玉渊谭天: In-depth analysis of the China-U.S. leaders' call: recalibrating direction of giant ship of China-U.S. relations

  (Note: Yuyuan Tantian 玉渊谭天 is a China social media known to be run by China Media Group, the country's state broadcaster.)

• People's Daily Commentary: Dialogue and cooperation are the only correct choice for China and the U.S.

Before diving into the details, here are two key updates concerning the latest China-U.S. dynamic:

On June 7, China's commerce ministry approves some rare earth export applications, according to China's state news agency Xinhua:

BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) -- China has approved a certain number of export license applications for rare earth-related items, considering rising global demand for medium and heavy rare earth elements driven by industries such as robotics and new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Commerce said Saturday. ■

On June 8, the Washington Post reports that the U.S. State Department tells consulates to resume processing Harvard visas on Friday night:

The State Department on Friday night told consulates around the world to resume processing visa applications for students planning to attend Harvard University, reversing guidance sent a day earlier that directed such requests to be rejected.

Judging by the readout and these recent moves, your host would say cautious optimism in the London talks is warranted.

Please note that the following translation is mine.

详解中美元首通话：校正中美关系这艘大船的航向

In-depth analysis of the China-U.S. leaders' call: recalibrating direction of giant ship of China-U.S. relations

The piece is posted by Yuyuan Tantian 玉渊谭天, a China social media known to be run by China Media Group, China's state broadcaster.

On the evening of June 5, President Xi Jinping spoke with U.S. President Trump at the latter's request. Their previous call took place on January 17.

The Chinese side issued a press release totaling 547 Chinese characters. The readout is rich in substance and warrants careful parsing.

As for how the next phase of talks will proceed, the U.S. side, which had long anticipated this call, would do well to read between the lines.

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A.

6月5日晚，国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。

President Xi Jinping on Thursday had phone talks with U.S. President Donald Trump at the latter's request.

Analysis: The first sentence of the press release features a crucial keyword—"at the request 应约".

President Trump's request for this call dates back to early February, meaning the U.S. had been seeking this conversation for four months. Over the past week, Washington's urgency intensified:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently expressed hope for leader-level communication.

• The Director of the National Economic Council and the White House Press Secretary also mentioned the US desire to speak with President Xi Jinping.

Why did China agree to talk at this moment? Professor Diao Daming 刁大明, Deputy Director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University, said:

"This phone call builds upon the January 17 conversation, serving to review developments over the past six months and chart the course for future relations. From the perspective of bilateral interactions, this demonstrates the steady, anchoring role of head-of-state diplomacy in guiding the relationship forward. Coming less than a month after the Geneva talks, the call provides new direction and momentum for advancing follow-up mechanisms and resolving issues through dialogue."

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B.

习近平指出，校正中美关系这艘大船的航向，需要我们把好舵、定好向，尤其是排除各种干扰甚至破坏，这尤为重要。

Xi said that recalibrating the direction of the giant ship of China-U.S. relations requires the two sides to take the helm and set the right course, adding that it is particularly important to steer clear of the various disturbances and disruptions.

Analysis: To Understand the "Recalibrating", one can look back at President Xi's assessment on bilateral relations from January 17:

"The two great nations of China and the United States are pursuing their respective dreams, and are both committed to delivering a better life to their people. Given the extensive common interests and broad space of cooperation between the two countries, China and the United States can become partners and friends, contribute to each other’s success, and advance shared prosperity for the good of the two countries and the whole world."

"Contribute to each other's success" means, at the very least, that:

• China and the U.S. are each other's major trading partners in goods.

• Trade in services between the two nations is growing rapidly.

• China and the U.S. are key bilateral investment partners.

Yet various disturbances and disruptions are hindering this shared prosperity. The U.S. has engaged in at least eight categories of interference and sabotage in the trade domain:

1. Attempting to revoke China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status.

2. Abusing the concept of national security.

3. Abusing export controls.

4. Imposing Section 301-Tariffs unilaterally.

5. Launching Section 232 investigations.

6. Misusing trade remedy measures.

7. Imposing trade restrictions on China under the pretext of fentanyl control.

8. Levying so-called "reciprocal tariffs".

Professor Cui Fan 崔凡 from the University of International Business and Economics said:

"These interferences and even sabotage can be summarized at two levels. The first involves the U.S.'s wrongful measures, including various tariff and non-tariff barriers. The second stems from its misguided perceptions, most notably framing China as a 'malicious competitor.' Actions like technological restrictions and export controls against China are all based on these flawed perceptions."

Therefore, the issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-US relationship, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right. We are partners, not adversaries.

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C.

根据美方提议，两国经贸牵头人在日内瓦举行会谈，迈出了通过对话协商解决经贸问题的重要一步，受到两国各界和国际社会普遍欢迎，也证明对话和合作是唯一正确的选择。

At the U.S. side's proposal, the two countries' economic and trade lead persons previously held talks in Geneva, marking an important step toward resolving economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation. This move has been widely welcomed by various sectors in both nations and the international community, demonstrating that dialogue and cooperation represent the only correct path forward.

Analysis: The first half of this part reaffirms that the economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva were held at the invitation of the American side.

By reiterating this point, China conveys two key messages:

First, those wrong moves were unilaterally initiated by the U.S. side, and it is the U.S. that needs to first recognize the problem. Second, since it was the U.S. that proactively sought talks, it should now demonstrate genuine willingness to cooperate, rather than treating negotiations as a game of strategy, price bargaining or prolonged tug-of-war.

Cui Fan also shared his observations on the first step taken by both sides:

"Objectively speaking, prior to this round of trade war, the U.S. believed it held strong bargaining chips. However, since early May this year, inbound cargo volumes at U.S. ports have significantly declined, major retailers and e-commerce platforms have been forced to raise prices, and some have reported risks of supply disruptions. Economic pressures on the U.S. have intensified considerably."

Notably, on the day the "Joint Statement on China-U.S. Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva" was issued, S&P 500 futures rose over 3%, while the Nasdaq Composite surged more than 4%. Immediately following the Geneva trade talks, orders from American buyers soared, creating an intense demand surge in China-U.S. shipping markets that "not a single vessel was left idle."

On the other hand, Trump's tariff policies have been encountering significant domestic resistance. Earlier, U.S. courts had suspended the implementation of these tariffs. Although the Trump administration filed an appeal and temporarily reinstated the measures, the legal battles clearly illustrate that tariffs remain deeply unpopular within the United States, reinforcing the notion that cooperation is the only viable option.

The international community broadly hopes that China and the U.S. will maintain stable relations and continue contributing to global economic growth. The U.S. should respect these global expectations.

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D.

双方要用好已经建立的经贸磋商机制，秉持平等态度，尊重各自关切，争取双赢结果。对此，中方是有诚意的，同时也是有原则的。

The two sides need to make good use of the economic and trade consultation mechanism already in place, and seek win-win results in the spirit of equality and respect for each other's concerns. The Chinese side is sincere about this, and at the same time has its principles.

Analysis: The key point here is the emphasis on making good use of the established consultation mechanism.

The Geneva Joint Statement specifically mentioned that both sides will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations, including working-level consultations on relevant issues as necessary.

Since the Geneva talks, sources indicate China and the U.S. have maintained communications across multiple bilateral and multilateral occasions and various levels, addressing their respective economic and trade concerns.

China's expressed "sincerity" and adherence to "principles" are closely related to this context.

"Sincerity" means that on issues not involving core principles, China respects U.S. concerns and aims to achieve mutually beneficial results through negotiation, especially in technical discussions, where there is room for flexibility.

"Principles," however, carry at least two implications: First, China reserves the right to respond to U.S. unilateral tariffs. Second, China strongly opposes any coercive or threatening negotiating tactics from the U.S. and urges the U.S. to abandon such approaches.

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E.

中国人一向言必行、行必果，既然达成了共识，双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后，中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措。

China has always honored its commitments with concrete actions. Since both sides have reached consensus, both should honor it. Following the Geneva talks, China has diligently implemented the agreement. The U.S., in turn, should objectively recognize the progress made and remove its negative measures targeting China.

Analysis: Two phrases in this part stand out: "China has always honored its commitments with concrete actions" and “objective recognition," each highlighting a specific underlying message.

The first conveys China's frustration. After the Geneva talks, China adhered faithfully to the joint statement, suspending or eliminating tariffs and non-tariff measures previously imposed as countermeasures to U.S. actions.

However, the U.S. has continued its gimmicks by implementing discriminatory restrictions against China, such as issuing guidelines restricting AI chip exports, banning the sale of electronic design automation (EDA) software to China, and revoking visas for Chinese students.

China has clearly expressed dissatisfaction—if the U.S. persists on this path, China will take firm measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests. The weight of this statement is something the U.S. has experienced before.

Yet, rather than reflecting on its own behavior, the U.S. has turned around and unjustly accused China of undermining the consensus. This approach lacks "objectivity".

Specifically, the U.S. has distorted China's rare-earth export controls, falsely claiming China is deliberately disrupting global supplies. To clarify China's stance:

Rare-earth materials clearly have dual-use (civilian and military) characteristics. Export controls on such materials are common international practice, applied in a non-discriminatory manner, not aimed at any specific country.

The fact that the U.S. sees itself as targeted reveals its habit of weaponizing technology and export controls.

Being "objective" means the U.S. should gradually roll back its harmful measures, including tariffs imposed under Section 301, Section 232, and those related to fentanyl, along with other restrictive non-tariff barriers.

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F.

双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流，增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。

The two sides should enhance exchanges in various fields such as diplomacy, economy and trade, military, and law enforcement, enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation.

Analysis: This sentence outlines the key fields for future China-U.S. dialogue. Zhao Hai 赵海, a researcher from the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, notes why these four fields stand out:

"Diplomacy, economic and trade relations, military affairs, and law enforcement are precisely the areas where extensive negotiations and exchanges will continue."

An interesting detail: On the same day as the leaders' call, China hosted a senior-level U.S. delegation for Track II dialogue in Beijing—another example of recent robust bilateral engagement.

Wu Xinbo, Director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, participated in the discussions and pointed out some notable members of the U.S. delegation:

• Evan Greenberg: Executive Vice Chair of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, who has consistently promoted people-to-people diplomacy between the two nations.

• Stephen Orlins: Played an instrumental role in U.S.-China normalization during his tenure at the U.S. State Department.

• Paul Fribourg: Chairman of ContiGroup Companies, which co-founded Chia Tai-Conti with Charoen Pokphand Group, becoming the first foreign-invested enterprise in the Chinese mainland after reform and opening-up.

• Ryan Hass: Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, formerly a senior official at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

These concrete individuals, businesses, and collaborative initiatives form the backbone of enhancing mutual understanding and reducing misunderstandings in U.S.-China relations.

Over the past two months, Jensen Huang (CEO of Nvidia), Richard Wagoner (Chairman of Invesco), and Jamie Dimon (Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase) have all visited China.

Every small step matters. China-U.S. relations grow stronger through each of these interactions. Likewise, the U.S. should remain committed at every level and in every field, taking practical steps toward productive exchanges and cooperation.

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G.

习近平强调，美国应当慎重处理台湾问题，避免极少数“台独”分裂分子把中美两国拖入冲突对抗的危险境地。

Xi emphasiz that the U.S. must handle the Taiwan question with prudence, so that the fringe separatists bent on "Taiwan independence" will not be able to drag China and the US into the dangerous terrain of confrontation and even conflict.

Analysis: Although this phone call mainly focused on trade and economic matters, Taiwan was explicitly mentioned, underlining the issue's seriousness. Clearly, it's something the U.S. should weigh carefully.

The key phrase here is "handle the Taiwan question with prudence."

This serves as a clear reminder to the U.S., especially after the current administration altered critical wording regarding Taiwan on the State Department's website—a move that sends misleading signals to Taiwan's DPP authorities.

China's message to the U.S. is: a small group of separatist forces pushing for "Taiwan independence" is engaging in provocative actions across the Taiwan Strait. If the U.S. abets these actions, it will find itself drawn into conflict and confrontation with no easy exit.

Taiwan question is a core interest for China. No matter how circumstances evolve, the U.S. must remain prudent and deliberate in its words and deeds concerning Taiwan.

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H.

特朗普表示十分尊重习近平主席，美中关系十分重要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增长。美中合作可以做成很多好事。美方将继续奉行一个中国政策。两国日内瓦经贸会谈很成功，达成了好的协议。美方愿同中方共同努力落实协议。美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习。

Trump expressed great respect for President Xi Jinping, noting the importance of U.S.-China relations. He stated that the U.S. is happy to see China maintaining strong economic growth and that cooperation between the two countries can achieve many positive outcomes. The U.S. will continue to adhere to the one-China policy. Trump praised the success of the Geneva talks, noting a good agreement was reached, and expressed willingness to collaborate with China to implement this agreement. He also welcomed Chinese students to study in the U.S.

Analysis: One notable phrase here deserves particular attention: "The U.S. is happy to see China maintaining strong economic growth."

According to Cui Fan, Trump's current challenges mainly revolve around domestic issues, and this statement is his way of signaling to China that the U.S. does not view it as an adversary.

Additionally, Trump's remarks suggest that at least three key areas established during the recent conversation will continue:

• Reaffirming the one-China policy and respect for China, which forms the political foundation for China-U.S. relations.

• Focusing on mutual benefit and economic cooperation, showing there is still room for practical collaboration.

• Welcoming Chinese students, a gesture that continues to highlight positive cultural and educational exchanges, making clear that educational policies aren't specifically targeting China.

Looking forward, the key will be not just hearing these words, but observing actions.

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I.

习近平欢迎特朗普再次访华，特朗普表示诚挚感谢。两国元首同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，尽快举行新一轮会谈。

Xi welcomed Trump to re-visit China, and Trump expressed sincere appreciation. Both leaders agreed that their teams would continue to implement the Geneva consensus and hold the next round of talks as soon as possible.

Analysis: The final paragraph of the press release provides two clear indications of how China-U.S. trade talks will unfold next.

First, it mentions Trump's visit to China—a positive signal. Trump's previous visit was back in November 2017.

Second, both leaders agreed explicitly to quickly arrange a new round of face-to-face trade and economic talks.

The U.S. urgently needs to advance the implementation of the Geneva consensus, as it currently faces growing economic pressures—including weakening employment, reduced consumer spending, and rising inflation. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has significantly stalled U.S. investment and trade, damaging economic expectations for the second half of this year.

Therefore, it's natural that the U.S. government seeks further consensus with China quickly.

An important detail worth noting: At the Geneva talks, the U.S. mainly sent two representatives—the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Trump has now explicitly added the U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to future trade talks.

Zhao Hai notes that the Treasury Secretary oversees macroeconomic and financial issues, the Trade Representative manages tariffs, and the Commerce Secretary handles restrictions related to technology, especially export controls. This indicates a broader scope for future U.S.-China discussions.

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对话和合作是中美唯一正确的选择（钟声）

Dialogue and cooperation are the only correct choice for China and the U.S.

The piece is penned by Zhong Sheng “钟声“ (a byline for international commentary pieces in People's Daily, short for "Voice of China") and released on June 7 edition of People’s Daily.

President Xi Jinping on Thursday had phone talks with U.S. President Donald Trump at the latter's request. This was the first conversation between the Chinese and U.S. heads of state since the inauguration of the current U.S. administration. The two presidents agreed that both sides should make good use of the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible. At a time when China-U.S. relations face multiple difficulties, the strategic communication between the two heads of state has plays an important leading role in helping both sides steer clear of the various disturbances and disruptions, overcome difficulties and challenges, and injected positive elements into a world fraught with turbulence and uncertainty.

President Xi said that recalibrating the direction of the giant ship of China-US relations requires the two sides to take the helm and set the right course, adding that it is particularly important to steer clear of the various disturbances and disruptions. This is a crucial conclusion drawn from the history of bilateral relations and holds particular significance for properly managing differences and enhancing cooperation at present. It fully demonstrates China's consistent sense of responsibility in handling China-U.S. relations.

The phone conversation between the two heads of state has drawn high attention from both countries and the international community. Many view it as sending a positive signal for strengthened dialogue and communication between the two sides. There is widespread hope that the two countries will implement the relevant consensus, take concrete actions to improve bilateral relations, and contribute stability and positive energy to the world.

China-U.S. economic and trade relations are not only of great significance to both countries but also exert a major influence on global economic stability and development. At the U.S. side's proposal, the two countries' economic and trade lead persons previously held talks in Geneva, marking an important step toward resolving economic and trade issues through dialogue and consultation. This move has been widely welcomed by various sectors in both nations and the international community, demonstrating that dialogue and cooperation represent the only correct path forward. China has always honored its commitments with concrete actions. It has consistently adopted a responsible approach by earnestly addressing, strictly implementing, and actively upholding the consensus reached during the Geneva talks.

In contrast, following the Geneva talks, the U.S. side has successively introduced multiple new discriminatory restrictions against China. These actions severely undermine the existing consensus from the Geneva talks, infringe upon China's legitimate rights and interests, and will inevitably damage the credibility of the U.S. itself. The two sides need to make good use of the economic and trade consultation mechanism already in place, and seek win-win results in the spirit of equality and respect for each other's concerns. The Chinese side is sincere about this, and at the same time has its principles. The U.S. should realistically assess the progress made and remove its negative measures against China.

The Taiwan question concerns China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is at the very core of China's core interests and the first red line that cannot be crossed in the China-U.S. relations. China is firmly resolved to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US must handle the Taiwan question with prudence, so that the fringe separatists bent on "Taiwan independence" will not be able to drag China and the US into the dangerous terrain of confrontation and even conflict. The U.S. should adhere to the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués, stop sending wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and stop creating factors that could lead to tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

History tells us that China and the U.S. stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. China always approaches and handles its relations with the U.S. with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. China is committed to enhancing dialogue and communication with the U.S., properly managing differences, and expanding mutually beneficial cooperation. After the two countries adjusted tariff in line with the Geneva consensus, the China-U.S. shipping market saw such high demand that "not a single vessel was left idle," which fully demonstrates the strong cooperative needs of businesses in both countries and reaffirms that mutual benefit is the essence of bilateral economic and trade ties. Whether it is advancing their respective development, promoting global economic recovery, or addressing international and regional hotspot issues, China and the U.S. need to coordinate and cooperate. The two sides should enhance exchanges in various fields such as diplomacy, economy and trade, military, and law enforcement, enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation.

President Trump stated during the call that the U.S.-China relationship is of great importance. The United States is happy to see China's economy maintaining strong growth, and U.S.-China cooperation can achieve many positive outcomes. The U.S. will continue to adhere to the one-China policy and is willing to work with China to implement the agreements reached in the Geneva talks. It also welcomes Chinese students to study in the U.S. China hopes the U.S. will translate these commitments into concrete actions.

Only by correcting the course and setting the right anchor can China and the United States jointly steer the giant ship of bilateral relations away from hidden reefs and shallow waters, navigating through storms and towering waves. The two sides should make good use of the established economic and trade consultation mechanisms, continue implementing the Geneva consensus, and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible. The people of both nations and the world at large expect a stable, sound, and sustainable China-U.S. relationship, one that fulfills the role major countries should play in promoting global peace and development. Enditem