A five-dimensional paradigm to decode China's policy language
demand, supply, innovation, institutions, and international cooperation
For anyone watching China closely, one indispensable—yet perpetually elusive—skill is the art of reading between the lines. Interpreting Beijing's official rhetoric, from time to time, feels like sitting in a class without a textbook, which makes any robust framework for decoding Chinese policy language particularly precious.
Dr. Lu Ruquan (陆如泉), president of the Economics & Technology Research Institute at China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC ETRI), has just provided such a framework: a hands-on five-dimensional paradigm for deconstructing China's official policy discourse.
Dr. Lu holds dual bachelor's degrees in Petroleum Engineering and English from China University of Petroleum and earned his PhD in international relations from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. A former deputy general manager of CNPC's International Department and a veteran of its Iraq and Sudan projects, he has, since 2006, devoted himself to strategic management and policy analysis.
Notably, CNPC ETRI stands among China's 29 national elite think tanks and is the sole institute born within a corporate behemoth.
Today's newsletter features his April 20 post published on his WeChat public account Spring Energy 清泉能源, titled An Analytical Framework and Paradigm: Interpreting the Energy Security Strategy of "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation"从“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略看一种问题分析框架和范式。
Dr. Lu starts with the term "paradigm" to show how President Xi's 2014 "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation" strategy provides an exemplary framework in problem-analysis methodology. The "Four Revolutions" encompass demand, supply, innovation and institutional reform, and "One Cooperation" underscores the imperative of international collaboration.
To bring this paradigm to life, he analyzes a March address by Guo Fang, Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment of China—delivered at the China Development Forum—which, he notes, adheres to this very analytical paradigm percisely.
Dr. Lu argues that, at the national level, the five-front paradigm crystallizes into overarching policy guidelines, and that, at the enterprise and individual levels, it remains a robust tool for rigorous, structured analysis.
Dr. Lu has kindly authorized your host to translate his piece for today's newsletter—please find the full English version below.
从“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略看一种问题分析框架和范式
An Analytical Framework and Paradigm: Interpreting the Energy Security Strategy of "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation"
I've been reflecting a lot on the notion of "paradigm" lately. What is the research paradigm in energy economics? What paradigm underlies the analysis of global oil and gas price trends? What is the energy security research paradigm? What paradigm guides the study of energy (oil) power dynamics? What paradigm shapes strategic planning research and formulation? Before I knew it, I was so absorbed in the "paradigm" that I couldn't pull myself away.
While revisiting President Xi's strategy in energy security of "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation," I suddenly realized that, viewed through problem-analysis frameworks and cognitive reasoning, the strategy itself represents an exemplary analytical paradigm.
First proposed by Xi at the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting in June 2014, the "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation" strategy provides fundamental guidance for China's energy security and development. Specifically, the "Four Revolutions" comprise:
Energy Consumption Revolution: Curb unreasonable energy consumption.
Energy Supply Revolution: Establish a diversified supply system.
Energy Technology Revolution: Promote the energy technology revolution to drive industrial upgrades.
Energy Institution Revolution: Promote the energy institution revolution to facilitate fast-track energy development
The "One Cooperation" refers to strengthening all-round international cooperation to ensure energy security in an open environment
Obviously, the "Consumption Revolution" addresses demand-side issues; the "Supply Revolution" tackles supply-side challenges; the "Technology Revolution" focuses on scientific and technological innovation; the "Institutional Revolution" concerns system and policy reforms; and the "One Cooperation" emphasizes international cooperation. In other words, when examining China's energy security and development, one can structure the analysis around these five dimensions—demand, supply, innovation, institutions, and cooperation. From the standpoint of policy drafting and research, elucidating these five dimensions yields a robust, comprehensive study: It spans internal and external factors, "hard" supply–demand issues and "soft" innovation and institutional environments, self‑reliance and cooperation—exactly the kind of comprehensive paradigm needed.
It so happens that just a few days ago I came across a keynote speech framed around these same five dimensions. In March of this year, Guo Fang, Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment of China, used exactly this structure in her speech at the China Development Forum. She told domestic and international participants that China will resolutely pursue a green, low-carbon development path through five key initiatives:
Fully advance the "Beautiful China Initiative"
Establish pilot zones for "Beautiful China Initiative" at various administrative levels, create high-quality green development hubs, and make integrated progress in the development of beautiful cities and villages. Accelerate the green, low-carbon transition of the energy, industry, transportation, urban-rural development, agriculture, and other sectors, while deepening pollution‑control campaigns. (This is fundamentally a “supply‑side” measure: “providing” a clean, green and beautiful China.)
Proactively tackle climate‑change challenges
Anchor efforts on the carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality targets, and progressively shift focus from controlling the volume and intensity of energy use to controlling the volume and intensity of carbon emissions. Steadily expand expand the coverage of the China Carbon Emission Trade Exchange to more sectors, such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper—while exploring paid carbon-quota allocation mechanisms. Increase the supply of projects in the voluntary greenhouse-gas reduction market, and accelerate the development of an efficient, standardized, transparent, and internationally aligned national voluntary emissions-trading system. (This is a “demand‑side” approach: managing the “demand” for carbon emissions and trading.)
Accelerate green and low-carbon technological innovation
Invest in frontier technologies such as new energy, undertake research on critical technologies, and integrate and demonstrate multi-pollutant co-reduction and deep-treatment solutions. Develop a digital governance system for "Beautiful China Initiative," strengthen applications of AI and other digital technologies, and develop a green, intelligent digital ecological conservation. (This clearly addresses the “innovation” dimension.)
Improve mechanisms for green, low-carbon development
Implement fiscal, financial, investment, and pricing policies that support green and low-carbon growth, with increased backing for climate-action initiatives. Enhance a green tax system to leverage environmental-protection taxes as regulatory tools. (This focuses on “institutional mechanisms”.)
Strengthen international cooperation on environment and climate
Enhance South–South collaboration on climate action, boost green investment and trade partnerships, ensure the environmental sustainability of outbound projects, and expand imports and exports of green, low-carbon products. (This clearly deals with “international cooperation”.)
Vice Minister Guo's address was almost certainly drafted by her ministry's General Office or Policy Research Department. Viewed through the five dimensions, it reveals a sophisticated, internally coherent paradigm that stands up to close scrutiny. The authors may not even have been consciously aware of outlining these five pillars, yet true experts work with such effortless fluency that their methods seem instinctive.
The five-dimensional analytical framework can also be applied in many other contexts:
a. 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for the Oil and Gas Industry. When reviewing the status quo and past achievements, one might summarize along five dimensions: production and supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25); demand and consumption characteristics over 2021-25; technological breakthroughs and scientific and technological advances; institutional reforms over 2021-25; and participation in international energy governance and cooperation. Likewise, when formulating development initiatives and action plans for the 15th Five-Year period, planning can proceed across these same five areas—expanding production and supply, guiding rational consumption, innovating technology, establishing new institutions, and pursuing international cooperation.
b. Strategic Planning for a Think Tank. Similarly, as someone from a think tank, when planning the future development of my institution, the five-dimensional analysis framework is also highly useful. First, we must identify our decision-support clients—their distinct needs for our research products. The needs of national leaders, ministries, corporate headquarters, businesses, and societal peers differ. Second, it is crucial to refine a set of high-quality think tank outputs and platforms, including think tank reports, publicly available industry reports, conferences, and forums. Third, we should innovate in our organizational and management models. Fourth, since our core asset is people, we must design a positive incentive mechanism/institution that ensures our researchers remain highly professional and career-oriented. Lastly, we need to strengthen international exchange to enhance the think tank's worldwide influence. As you can see, this five-dimensional problem analysis framework never fails.
c. Corporate Due Diligence. When conducting due diligence for an enterprise, a report can likewise be structured around five dimensions: the consumption patterns and consumer psychology in the company's industry and market segment; the firm's product advantages and competitive landscape; leading-edge technological innovation in the industry and the innovation performance of the top three players; the internal and external mechanisms the company must establish to secure a competitive edge; and the firm's "going global" strategy for becoming a true multinational.
It is evident that the five-dimensional analytical framework of "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation", when elevated to the national level, represents major state policies and macroeconomic strategies; when applied at the micro-level of enterprises and individuals, it serves as an excellent analytical framework and paradigm for problem-solving.